(Kitco News) -- Aluminum is being supported by news that by china will raise electricity prices for non-residential users for the first time since November 2009, say analysts with Barclays Capital. China is facing power shortages this summer due to squeezed power-plant margins, low water levels and strong domestic demand. Barclays says the shortages should affect Aluminum the most among the base metals, which is also ture for power price increases, given the power intensity of Aluminum smelting. Nickel pig iron producers are also likely to suffer as this is a comparatively power-intensive process. out of the nine provinces that have Aluminum-smelting producation, seven have some capacity that purchases power from the grid and therefore will see their costs rise, and at least 28% of chinese Aluminum production that will be affected by the increase in power tariffs, Barclays says."This increase in power prices will put further upward pressure on the production costs of an industry and a country where marginal production costs are already at a record high," Barclays says. Additionally, tightness in power availability will affect the South African aluminum industry, Barclays says.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
James Grant and James Turk discuss gold, the Fed and the fiscal situation of the USA
James Grant and James Turk discuss gold, the Fed and the fiscal situation of the USA
James Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer (http://www.grantspub.com/) and James Turk of the GoldMoney Foundation discuss the history and mission of the Fed, how mission creep has taken it wildly beyond its initial purpose into the territory of QE, ZIRP and other fiat currency experiments.
They talk about who benefit from zero interest rates and how savers are penalized by this easy money policy. They explain that the US have been off the gold standard since 1913, Bretton Woods being only a shadow of the classical gold standard. In the last 40 years low interest rates have encouraged leverage and speculation, which have reached incredible levels.
They discuss the fiscal profligacy of the US government. A solution to debt levels could still be found if the political will existed. US strengths and positive momentum could still be harnessed to save the dollar if people’s eyes could be opened. However they conclude that every paper currency in history has eventually gone to zero.
James and Jim also talk about ZIRP and the absence of the bond vigilantes after over 30 years of bull market in bonds. How traders no longer care about fundamentals, like balance sheets, but rather focus on very short time horizons and the spreads between funding costs and yields. How this situation is unsustainable.
They see gold still as a very under-owned, misunderstood and marginal asset still shunned by institutional investors, with a few notable exceptions which indicate that the tide could be turning. They see a gold standard in the future, although timing is always uncertain.
At the end they talk about the history of US post civil war specie resumption and parallels to a return to the gold standard in the future. Private alternatives and competing currencies are a possibility; if politicians are too slow to provide solutions the market could do it for them.
Fatal Mistake: Self Will Run Riot
Emotions, good or bad, are of little benefit to the commodities trader. Overexuberance at a good trade and feeling suicidal when a loss occurs serve no purpose. Wins happen and losses happen, and a trader needs to stay level-headed and focused, or be consumed by the market frenzy.
The phrase “married to a position” is used when someone has a losing position and won’t let it go, no matter what. Take my advice— get a divorce. When you see a position isn’t working out as you expected, get out of it. Being married to a position means you’re not being rational and looking at the trade objectively; you’re letting your emotions get in the way. Don’t do it. Go back to the reasons you initiated the trade in the first place. If the situation has changed, the best advice may be to change the position, too.
The phrase “married to a position” is used when someone has a losing position and won’t let it go, no matter what. Take my advice— get a divorce. When you see a position isn’t working out as you expected, get out of it. Being married to a position means you’re not being rational and looking at the trade objectively; you’re letting your emotions get in the way. Don’t do it. Go back to the reasons you initiated the trade in the first place. If the situation has changed, the best advice may be to change the position, too.
COPPER - UPDATE
COPPER-MCX
SELL COPPER
Below 417.00.....
Target 415.00....., 411.00....., 409.....
stop loss 420.00.....
if cross 420.00..... with volume and stay a few minutes
then try to touch 423.00....., 429.00..... levels.
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
GOLD, SILVER & CRUD - UPDATE
All levels over due in
gold, silver, and crud.
for more detail see 30/may update.
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
Monday, May 30, 2011
Mistake: Greed and Lack of Discipline
These are the two biggest hurdles new commodity traders face, and overcoming them is a long and ongoing process. Contrary to Gordon Gekko’s famous (or infamous) line in the film Wall Street, greed is not good. In fact, in this business it could be lethal. How do you overcome these tendencies? Well, life on the floor is kind of like living in a big support group: not always pleasant, and certainly not always good for the ego!
When I was getting my feet wet and was still green as grass, I was surrounded by traders who had been in the pit for a very long time, some since the founding of the exchange. And believe me, they were the first to let me know when I messed up! A cardinal sin in the pits is to bid into someone’s offer. In other words, when you step into the pit, you announce yourself. Usually you simply shout out the month you’re trading—for example, SEP or OCT (September or October).
Then people in the pit will yell back something like “2 bid at 8.” That means they are willing to pay 2 or sell at 8. It’s just an indication, but it gives you an idea of where the market is. To bid through some-one’s offer means that if I entered the pit and bid 9 when they were offering at 8, it would be a very big no-no. And they let you know about it! So I only did that a couple of times before I wised up. Either you learn quickly down there or you’re out, no two ways about it. Those people who beat me up for that stuff are the very same ones who taught me the valuable lessons I needed to learn to trade these markets on and off the floor with incredible success.
By having experienced people around you or within your network you can find support and advice that can prove invaluable. Building an information and trading network can make implementing and adhering to trading discipline far less cumbersome and more enjoyable. Nobody will help you enforce your own rules—that’s each trader’s private responsibility—but a good network often can tell us as traders when we may be on the wrong path or simply talking our book. How do you build a network? In today’s world, it’s not hard at all.
As with everything in life, it’s good to have friends in the right places; one commodity that I value above almost all others is my network of traders.
The old saying that “two heads are better than one” is right on the money. Before I make a move into any trade, I get a feel for market sentiment by checking in with my network. Now I don’t rely entirely on them, not at all. I don’t always consult with them, but if I want another opinion I can always get one. I get thousands of e-mails a month, which help to give me a clear picture of what market participants are thinking and doing, and that can prove invaluable, too. You may not get thousands of e-mails (if you’re lucky), but chat rooms and other sources can be good places to see what others are thinking.
When I was getting my feet wet and was still green as grass, I was surrounded by traders who had been in the pit for a very long time, some since the founding of the exchange. And believe me, they were the first to let me know when I messed up! A cardinal sin in the pits is to bid into someone’s offer. In other words, when you step into the pit, you announce yourself. Usually you simply shout out the month you’re trading—for example, SEP or OCT (September or October).
Then people in the pit will yell back something like “2 bid at 8.” That means they are willing to pay 2 or sell at 8. It’s just an indication, but it gives you an idea of where the market is. To bid through some-one’s offer means that if I entered the pit and bid 9 when they were offering at 8, it would be a very big no-no. And they let you know about it! So I only did that a couple of times before I wised up. Either you learn quickly down there or you’re out, no two ways about it. Those people who beat me up for that stuff are the very same ones who taught me the valuable lessons I needed to learn to trade these markets on and off the floor with incredible success.
By having experienced people around you or within your network you can find support and advice that can prove invaluable. Building an information and trading network can make implementing and adhering to trading discipline far less cumbersome and more enjoyable. Nobody will help you enforce your own rules—that’s each trader’s private responsibility—but a good network often can tell us as traders when we may be on the wrong path or simply talking our book. How do you build a network? In today’s world, it’s not hard at all.
As with everything in life, it’s good to have friends in the right places; one commodity that I value above almost all others is my network of traders.
The old saying that “two heads are better than one” is right on the money. Before I make a move into any trade, I get a feel for market sentiment by checking in with my network. Now I don’t rely entirely on them, not at all. I don’t always consult with them, but if I want another opinion I can always get one. I get thousands of e-mails a month, which help to give me a clear picture of what market participants are thinking and doing, and that can prove invaluable, too. You may not get thousands of e-mails (if you’re lucky), but chat rooms and other sources can be good places to see what others are thinking.
COPPER - UPDATE
COPPER-MCX
Last friday we told that
Above 413.80.....
our target were 415.80....., 417.50.....
see the high 419.75.....
and closed at 417.30.....
NOW WHAT TO EXPECT ? ? ?
Above 418.30.....
target are 420.85....., 422.10.....
Below 417.30.....
target are 415.10....., 413.80.....
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
CRUD OIL - UPDATE 30/may
CRUD OIL-MCX
On 27/may crud trading in range
our levels 4535....,4587.....
and closed 4554.....
NOW WHAT TO EXPECT ? ? ?
our last expect are over due
ABOVE 4599.....
WILL TRY TO TOUCH 4630....., 4680.....
BELOW 4535.....
PANIC UP TO 4495....., 4445.....
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
GOLD, SILVER - UPDATE 30/may
GOLD-MCX
In last update we told that
Above 22,430.....
our target were 22,480....., 22,515.....
refresh your memory and see the high 22,544....
and last closed 22,520....
Above 22,535.....
our target are 22,570....., 22,620.....
Below 22,500.....
our target are 22,440....., 55,410.....
(more detail during market hour for subscribers)
SILVER-MCX
Last week we told that
Above 57,200.....
target were 57,500....., 58,135...., 58,950.....
see high 57,873.....
closed on 57,505.....
Above 57,610.....
will try to touch 57,870....., 58,180....., 58,590.....
Below 57,350.....
will panic up to 57,050....., 56,700....., 56,415.....
(more detail to our subscribers)
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Mistake: Letting Losses Run and Taking Small, Quick Profits
This is one of the worst mistakes new traders make (I know from vast, often painful, experience in my youth). I remember playing the game of hoping my Dollar Index positions would turn around when I was first starting out in the trading pit; they rarely did. Wishful thinking is not a good trading strategy—being disciplined is. Not having a well-thought-out game plan and strict trading rules is truly a recipe for failure.
Often new pit traders in particular will get hit hard and then become overly cautious. They resort to taking small profits even though those miniscule gains might have turned into a large profit that could have offset all their losses if they had just been a little more patient.
I still find myself tending to let losses run rather than doing what I know is right and getting out of the position to reevaluate. As I mentioned in Chapter 1, it’s all too common for traders to talk their book, or live in denial, hoping against hope that the market will turn their way. This is almost guaranteeing that it won’t. Traders in the midst of losing tend to live on the misplaced hope that the market will retrace and then let them break even. Instead, this mentality actually leads to the opposite and creates even bigger losses. The markets can be cruel, and they seldom come back or retrace to let you off the hook. All of this can be avoided or dealt with quite easily. Simply use discipline and, more important, predetermined stop orders to prevent your losses from closing your account. Equally important is to have a plan to take profits at a very specific level and stick to it.
Often new pit traders in particular will get hit hard and then become overly cautious. They resort to taking small profits even though those miniscule gains might have turned into a large profit that could have offset all their losses if they had just been a little more patient.
I still find myself tending to let losses run rather than doing what I know is right and getting out of the position to reevaluate. As I mentioned in Chapter 1, it’s all too common for traders to talk their book, or live in denial, hoping against hope that the market will turn their way. This is almost guaranteeing that it won’t. Traders in the midst of losing tend to live on the misplaced hope that the market will retrace and then let them break even. Instead, this mentality actually leads to the opposite and creates even bigger losses. The markets can be cruel, and they seldom come back or retrace to let you off the hook. All of this can be avoided or dealt with quite easily. Simply use discipline and, more important, predetermined stop orders to prevent your losses from closing your account. Equally important is to have a plan to take profits at a very specific level and stick to it.
CRB ends up 3rd straight week as dollar wilts
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a bellwether for commodities, posted a 1.4 percent weekly rise but remained on track for its biggest monthly decline since May 2010 when the European debt crisis roiled commodity markets.
Volumes were thin on Friday, with investors cautious heading into the long weekend that
includes the U.S. Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Volumes for oil futures in New York were more than 40 percent below the 30-day average; corn 36 percent and U.S. copper 25 percent.
The 19-commodity CRB index rose nearly 1 percent on the day and 1.4 percent on the week. It had risen a total of 2.6 percent over the last three weeks.
A weaker dollar buoyed commodity markets. The euro rose against the U.S. currency as European officials said Greece should be able to shoulder its heavy debt burden without restructuring.
With two trading sessions left in May, the CRB was down about 7 percent for the month to date, which would be its biggest monthly decline since May 2010.
Analysts doubted that the index would make up those losses before trading for May closed on Wednesday.
"I wouldn't expect the CRB to jump that much in two sessions, though I admit we live in an extremely volatile and fluid world, where headlines can make everything look great one moment and like utter chaos the next," said Sean McGillivray , vice president and head of asset allocation for Great Pacific Wealth Management in Oregon.
"From the point of inflation and tightening supplies, there are grounds to pay more for everything, from gasoline to cotton. But we have to consider the larger backdrop of the economy and consumer demand as well."
This month's sharp losses in commodities stemmed from a particularly sharp sell-off on May 5, when crude oil posted a record daily decline of $12 a barrel on worries that global economic growth was slowing.
On Friday, benchmark crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 36 cents at $100.59 per barrel. For the month, it was down more than $13 or nearly 12 percent -- which would be its biggest monthly decline in a year.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission posted data this week showing signs that May's sharp decline may be drawing investors back to the sector.
The CFTC data showed speculators loaded up in commodities adding long positions worth $4.7 billion in the week ending May 24. It was the biggest increase in net longs since early April, according to an analysis of data by Thomson Reuters.
While commodity bulls were hoping for the traditional spike in U.S. consumption of gasoline, or petrol, during the peak summer driving season, statistics did not yet bear that out.
"U.S. petrol demand ... continues to be slack ahead of the summer driving season, which traditionally kicks in over the coming (Memorial) holiday weekend," said Andrey Kryuchenko, analyst in London for Moscow-based investment banker VTB Capital.
In grains markets, spring wheat prices rose for a third day, posting their highest close since 2008 as wet weather delayed seeding of the high-protein crop. Strong demand also boosted corn.
Corn and wheat have made hefty gains in the last fortnight from bad weather that disrupted plantings in Europe and the United States.
Copper prices hit a three-week high, pushed higher in front of the long holiday weekend as the weak dollar and steady equity markets helped sentiment negative implications for demand from another soft U.S. economic data.
Volumes for oil futures in New York were more than 40 percent below the 30-day average; corn 36 percent and U.S. copper 25 percent.
The 19-commodity CRB index rose nearly 1 percent on the day and 1.4 percent on the week. It had risen a total of 2.6 percent over the last three weeks.
A weaker dollar buoyed commodity markets. The euro rose against the U.S. currency as European officials said Greece should be able to shoulder its heavy debt burden without restructuring.
With two trading sessions left in May, the CRB was down about 7 percent for the month to date, which would be its biggest monthly decline since May 2010.
Analysts doubted that the index would make up those losses before trading for May closed on Wednesday.
"I wouldn't expect the CRB to jump that much in two sessions, though I admit we live in an extremely volatile and fluid world, where headlines can make everything look great one moment and like utter chaos the next," said Sean McGillivray , vice president and head of asset allocation for Great Pacific Wealth Management in Oregon.
"From the point of inflation and tightening supplies, there are grounds to pay more for everything, from gasoline to cotton. But we have to consider the larger backdrop of the economy and consumer demand as well."
This month's sharp losses in commodities stemmed from a particularly sharp sell-off on May 5, when crude oil posted a record daily decline of $12 a barrel on worries that global economic growth was slowing.
On Friday, benchmark crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 36 cents at $100.59 per barrel. For the month, it was down more than $13 or nearly 12 percent -- which would be its biggest monthly decline in a year.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission posted data this week showing signs that May's sharp decline may be drawing investors back to the sector.
The CFTC data showed speculators loaded up in commodities adding long positions worth $4.7 billion in the week ending May 24. It was the biggest increase in net longs since early April, according to an analysis of data by Thomson Reuters.
While commodity bulls were hoping for the traditional spike in U.S. consumption of gasoline, or petrol, during the peak summer driving season, statistics did not yet bear that out.
"U.S. petrol demand ... continues to be slack ahead of the summer driving season, which traditionally kicks in over the coming (Memorial) holiday weekend," said Andrey Kryuchenko, analyst in London for Moscow-based investment banker VTB Capital.
In grains markets, spring wheat prices rose for a third day, posting their highest close since 2008 as wet weather delayed seeding of the high-protein crop. Strong demand also boosted corn.
Corn and wheat have made hefty gains in the last fortnight from bad weather that disrupted plantings in Europe and the United States.
Copper prices hit a three-week high, pushed higher in front of the long holiday weekend as the weak dollar and steady equity markets helped sentiment negative implications for demand from another soft U.S. economic data.
Friday, May 27, 2011
HAPPY WEEKEND
THIS WEEK OUR ALL TARGET ACHIEVED IN ALL CALL
GOLD AND SILVER GIVE GOOD RETURN
OUR SUBSCRIBERS ENJOY PARTY
BECAUSE THEY ALL MINT MONEY
TO OUR HARD WORK
ARE YOU MINT MONEY ? ? ?
ARE YOU HAPPY THIS WEEK ? ? ?
IF NOT THEN
JOIN US.
ONCE AGAIN
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
COPPER , NICKEL - UPDATE 27/MAY
COPPER-MCX
YESTERDAY BOTH SIDE ACHIEVED FIRST TARGET
AND CLOSED ON 412.95.....
TODAY WHAT EXPECT ? ? ?
ABOVE 413.80.....
WILL TRY TO KISS 415.80....., 417.50.....
BELOW 412....
PANIC UP TO 410.80....., 408.50.....
(more detail to our subscribers.)
NICKEL-MCX
ABOVE 1050.....
TRY TO TOUCH 1066....., 1085.....
BELOW 1035....
PANIC UP TO 1026...., 1015.....
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
CRUD OIL - UPDATE 27/MAY
CRUD OIL-MCX
YESTERDAY WE TOLD
BELOW 4560.....
TARGET WAS 4530....., 4480.....
SEE YESTERDAY LOW 4526.....
AND CLOSED ON 4562.....
NOW WHAT TO EXPECT ? ? ?
ABOVE 4599.....
WILL TRY TO TOUCH 4630....., 4680.....
BELOW 4535.....
PANIC UP TO 4495....., 4445.....
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
GOLD, SILVER - UPDATE 27/may
GOLD-MCX
YESTERDAY WE RECOMMENDED
BELOW 22,460.....
OUR TARGET WAS 22,430....., 22,390.....
JUST SEE THE LOW 22,300.....
(our subscribers book profit on 22,350.....)
AND CLOSED ON 22,377.....
NOW WHAT TO EXPECT FROM GOLD ? ? ?
ABOVE 22,430.....
WILL TRY TO TOUCH 22,480....., 22,515.....
BELOW 22,360.....
PANIC UP TO 22,299....., 22,265.....
(more detail during market hours for our subscribers)
SILVER-MCX
YESTERDAY WE TOLD
ABOVE 57,300.....
TARGET WAS 57,817....., 58,059....., 58,522.....
AND ALSO
BELOW 57,100.....
TARGET WAS 56,745....., 56,495....., 55,780.....
JUST SEE THE YESTERDAY HIGH & LOW 59,003..... & 55,200.....
AND CLOSED ON 56,554.....
TODAY WHAT EXPECT FROM SILVER ? ? ?
ABOVE 57,200.....
WILL TRY TO KISS 57,500....., 58,135....., 58,950.....
BELOW 56,415.....
PANIC UP TO 55,865....., 55,480....., 55,100.....
(more detail to our subscribers via sms)
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Mistake: Not Moving the Stop with the Market to Protect Profit
Let’s illustrate with a trade in sugar. Say we buy an October sugar futures contract at $15.44 and then we set our sell stop order below the market at $15.00. Now the market moves higher, to $15.95. Our smartest strategy is to move our stop up now from $15.00 to our entry point of $15.44, or breakeven. In other words, we would break even on the trade, more than likely. Later, if the market moves even higher, we can move the stop again, and now almost guarantee a profit. This type of activity is called placing a trailing stop, because it trails behind our trade and moves as the trade moves. This is smart trading. Master it, and use it.
COPPER , NICKEL - UPDATE
COPPER-MCX
YESTERDAY WE TOLD COPPER
ABOVE 406.70.....
TARGET 408.50..... , 410.30.......
HIT OUR 2nd TARGET MAKE HIGH 414.75....
AND CLOSED ON 412.90.....
NOW WHAT EXPECT ? ? ?
ABOVE 413.50....
TARGET ARE 415.50....., 418.20.....
BELOW 411......
TARGET ARE 409.50....., 406.80......
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
CRUD OIL - UPDATE
CRUD OIL-MCX
YESTERDAY ES TOLD
ABOVE 4530....
TARGET 4585...., 4650.....
SEE YESTERDAY HIGH 4619....
AND CLOSED ON 4602....
NOW WHAT IN CRUD ? ? ?
ABOVE 4620....
TARGET ARE 4650...., 4690....
BELOW 4560.....
TARGET ARE 4530...., 4480....
(more detail to our subscribers)
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
GOLD, SILVER - UPDATE 26/may
GOLD-MCX
YESTERDAY WE RECOMMENDED TO
ABOVE 22,430.......
OUR TARGET 55,480....., 22,550......
SEE HIGH 22,568.....
AND CLOSED ON 22,501.....
WHAT EXPECT TODAY ? ? ?
ABOVE 22,525......
TARGET ARE 22,595....., 22,635......
BELOW 22, 460.....
TARGET ARE 22,430..... , 22,390.....
(more intraday detail to our subscribers.)
SILVER-MCX
WE ARE BULLISH FROM LAST TWO DAY
YESTERDAY WE TOLD
ABOVE 55,300.....
TARGET 55,505...., 56,100...., 56,609.....
YOU SEE MORE FIREWORK ABOVE OUR LAST TARGET
MAKE HIGH 57,682.....
( 1000 point up from our last target )
AND CLOSED ON 57,352....
NOW WHAT EXPECT IN SILVER ? ? ?
ABOVE 57,600....
TARGET ARE 57,817...., 58,059...., 58,522....
BELOW 57,100....
TARGET ARE 56,745...., 56,495...., 55,780....
(more live intraday detail to our subscribers)
for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com
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