Monday, May 30, 2011

Mistake: Greed and Lack of Discipline

These are the two biggest hurdles new commodity traders face, and overcoming them is a long and ongoing process. Contrary to Gordon Gekko’s famous (or infamous) line in the film Wall Street, greed is not good. In fact, in this business it could be lethal. How do you overcome these tendencies? Well, life on the floor is kind of like living in a big support group: not always pleasant, and certainly not always good for the ego! 
When I was getting my feet wet and was still green as grass, I was surrounded by traders who had been in the pit for a very long time, some since the founding of the exchange. And believe me, they were the first to let me know when I messed up! A cardinal sin in the pits is to bid into someone’s offer. In other words, when you step into the pit, you announce yourself. Usually you simply shout out the month you’re trading—for example, SEP or OCT (September or October).
Then people in the pit will yell back something like “2 bid at 8.” That means they are willing to pay 2 or sell at 8. It’s just an indication, but it gives you an idea of where the market is. To bid through some-one’s offer means that if I entered the pit and bid 9 when they were offering at 8, it would be a very big no-no. And they let you know about it! So I only did that a couple of times before I wised up. Either you learn quickly down there or you’re out, no two ways about it. Those people who beat me up for that stuff are the very same ones who taught me the valuable lessons I needed to learn to trade these markets on and off the floor with incredible success.
By having experienced people around you or within your network you can find support and advice that can prove invaluable. Building an information and trading network can make implementing and adhering to trading discipline far less cumbersome and more enjoyable. Nobody will help you enforce your own rules—that’s each trader’s private responsibility—but a good network often can tell us as traders when we may be on the wrong path or simply talking our book. How do you build a network? In today’s world, it’s not hard at all.
As with everything in life, it’s good to have friends in the right places; one commodity that I value above almost all others is my network of traders.
 
The old saying that “two heads are better than one” is right on the money. Before I make a move into any trade, I get a feel for market sentiment by checking in with my network. Now I don’t rely entirely on them, not at all. I don’t always consult with them, but if I want another opinion I can always get one. I get thousands of e-mails a month, which help to give me a clear picture of what market participants are thinking and doing, and that can prove invaluable, too. You may not get thousands of e-mails (if you’re lucky), but chat rooms and other sources can be good places to see what others are thinking.
 


COPPER - UPDATE


COPPER-MCX

Last friday we told that

Above 413.80.....

our target were 415.80....., 417.50.....

see the high 419.75.....

and closed at 417.30.....

NOW WHAT TO EXPECT ? ? ?

Above 418.30.....

target are 420.85....., 422.10.....

Below 417.30.....

target are 415.10....., 413.80.....


 for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com




CRUD OIL - UPDATE 30/may


CRUD OIL-MCX

On 27/may crud trading in range

our levels 4535....,4587.....

and closed 4554.....

NOW WHAT TO EXPECT ? ? ?

our last expect are over due

ABOVE 4599.....

WILL TRY TO TOUCH 4630....., 4680.....

BELOW 4535.....

PANIC UP TO 4495....., 4445.....



 for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com





GOLD, SILVER - UPDATE 30/may



GOLD-MCX

In last update we told that

Above 22,430.....

our target were 22,480....., 22,515.....

refresh your memory and see the high 22,544....

and last closed 22,520....


Above 22,535.....

our target are 22,570....., 22,620.....

Below 22,500.....

our target are 22,440....., 55,410.....

(more detail during market hour for subscribers)


SILVER-MCX

Last week we told that

Above 57,200.....

target were 57,500....., 58,135...., 58,950.....

see high 57,873.....

closed on 57,505.....


Above 57,610.....

will try to touch 57,870....., 58,180....., 58,590.....

Below 57,350.....

will panic up to 57,050....., 56,700....., 56,415.....

(more detail to our subscribers)

 for more detail contact us - niranjanpatel80@gmail.com




ART OF LIVING


Saturday, May 28, 2011

Americans are getting poorer and it's only getting worse


Mistake: Letting Losses Run and Taking Small, Quick Profits

This is one of the worst mistakes new traders make (I know from vast, often painful, experience in my youth). I remember playing the game of hoping my Dollar Index positions would turn around when I was first starting out in the trading pit; they rarely did. Wishful thinking is not a good trading strategy—being disciplined is. Not having a well-thought-out game plan and strict trading rules is truly a recipe for failure. 
Often new pit traders in particular will get hit hard and then become overly cautious. They resort to taking small profits even though those miniscule gains might have turned into a large profit that could have offset all their losses if they had just been a little more patient.
I still find myself tending to let losses run rather than doing what I know is right and getting out of the position to reevaluate. As I mentioned in Chapter 1, it’s all too common for traders to talk their book, or live in denial, hoping against hope that the market will turn their way. This is almost guaranteeing that it won’t. Traders in the midst of losing tend to live on the misplaced hope that the market will retrace and then let them break even. Instead, this mentality actually leads to the opposite and creates even bigger losses. The markets can be cruel, and they seldom come back or retrace to let you off the hook. All of this can be avoided or dealt with quite easily. Simply use discipline and, more important, predetermined stop orders to prevent your losses from closing your account. Equally important is to have a plan to take profits at a very specific level and stick to it.

CRB ends up 3rd straight week as dollar wilts



NEW YORK: Commodities rose in thin pre-holiday trading on Friday and posted their third weekly increase as crude oil stayed above the $100 a barrel mark and corn and copper rose as much as 2 percent each. 

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a bellwether for commodities, posted a 1.4 percent weekly rise but remained on track for its biggest monthly decline since May 2010 when the European debt crisis roiled commodity markets. 

Volumes were thin on Friday, with investors cautious heading into the long weekend that


includes the U.S. Memorial Day holiday on Monday. 

Volumes for oil futures in New York were more than 40 percent below the 30-day average; corn 36 percent and U.S. copper 25 percent. 

The 19-commodity CRB index rose nearly 1 percent on the day and 1.4 percent on the week. It had risen a total of 2.6 percent over the last three weeks. 

A weaker dollar buoyed commodity markets. The euro rose against the U.S. currency as European officials said Greece should be able to shoulder its heavy debt burden without restructuring. 

With two trading sessions left in May, the CRB was down about 7 percent for the month to date, which would be its biggest monthly decline since May 2010. 

Analysts doubted that the index would make up those losses before trading for May closed on Wednesday. 

"I wouldn't expect the CRB to jump that much in two sessions, though I admit we live in an extremely volatile and fluid world, where headlines can make everything look great one moment and like utter chaos the next," said Sean McGillivray , vice president and head of asset allocation for Great Pacific Wealth Management in Oregon. 

"From the point of inflation and tightening supplies, there are grounds to pay more for everything, from gasoline to cotton. But we have to consider the larger backdrop of the economy and consumer demand as well." 

This month's sharp losses in commodities stemmed from a particularly sharp sell-off on May 5, when crude oil posted a record daily decline of $12 a barrel on worries that global economic growth was slowing. 

On Friday, benchmark crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 36 cents at $100.59 per barrel. For the month, it was down more than $13 or nearly 12 percent -- which would be its biggest monthly decline in a year. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission posted data this week showing signs that May's sharp decline may be drawing investors back to the sector. 

The CFTC data showed speculators loaded up in commodities adding long positions worth $4.7 billion in the week ending May 24. It was the biggest increase in net longs since early April, according to an analysis of data by Thomson Reuters. 

While commodity bulls were hoping for the traditional spike in U.S. consumption of gasoline, or petrol, during the peak summer driving season, statistics did not yet bear that out. 

"U.S. petrol demand ... continues to be slack ahead of the summer driving season, which traditionally kicks in over the coming (Memorial) holiday weekend," said Andrey Kryuchenko, analyst in London for Moscow-based investment banker VTB Capital. 

In grains markets, spring wheat prices rose for a third day, posting their highest close since 2008 as wet weather delayed seeding of the high-protein crop. Strong demand also boosted corn. 

Corn and wheat have made hefty gains in the last fortnight from bad weather that disrupted plantings in Europe and the United States. 

Copper prices hit a three-week high, pushed higher in front of the long holiday weekend as the weak dollar and steady equity markets helped sentiment negative implications for demand from another soft U.S. economic data. 




ART OF LIVING